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Your 2026 Sleeper Picks

No waiting on an email — here's the list, plus a sample of the Vegas touchdown board they came from. Bookmark this page.

5 value picks: where Vegas disagrees with ADP

These are the biggest gaps on my board — guys the books expect to score, who the draft room is letting slide. That gap is where value hides.

PlayerADPAnytime TDWhy
Jadarian PriceRB SEA 65.853% Highest TD rate of anyone going after pick 60 on my board.
Xavier WorthyWR KC 104.741% Tied to a good offense at a WR3 price.
Blake CorumRB LAR 117.538% Goal-line role is the whole bet here.
Jake FergusonTE DAL 129.236% TE falls off a cliff after the top 4 — 36% at ~130 is a real edge.
Isaiah LikelyTE NYG 141.333% Same logic, one round later. Cheap enough to be wrong.

How to use this (steal the method)

Take consensus ADP, layer anytime-TD odds on top, then run value-over-replacement by position so you're comparing an RB to a WR honestly instead of eyeballing tiers. On draft day, when two players feel close, take the one the books think scores more. That's the entire edge — and it compounds over a 17-week season.

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